In 2026, Glass Demand Will Further Contract, With A Key Focus On The Progress Of Capacity Reduction.

   In 2026, the glass industry is expected to continue its pattern of dual contraction in both supply and demand. Data on building completions will continue to bottom out, while the outlook for housing sales remains uncertain. Second-hand housing prices have yet to stabilize, though the rate of decline has slowed. The implementation of relevant policy measures is expected to stimulate certain刚性需求 (essential housing needs) and improvement demand, potentially driving a moderate increase in home renovation demand. However, the engineering side is likely to see a contraction in glass demand, with overall demand expected to decline by approximately 2-3%.

On the supply side, the forced cold repairs of production lines in the Shahe and Hubei regions by the end of 2025 already reflect the government's policy determination to combat involution in traditional industries. Going forward, the float glass industry must reduce its heavy dependence on the real estate sector, accelerating industry restructuring and transformation and upgrading. It is anticipated that 2025–2026 will mark an acceleration of capacity clearance. The average daily melting rate is projected to trend downward from 155,000 tons to around 150,000 tons for the year.

The inventory accumulation starting point in 2026 will be significantly higher than that at the beginning of 2025, suggesting greater inventory pressure in the first quarter of next year compared to previous years. Moreover, with the share of midstream inventory continuing to rise, glass manufacturers are likely to face severe challenges of inventory build-up and price declines around the Spring Festival of 2026, which may in turn accelerate the pace of cold repairs.

The main variable for the glass market fundamentals in 2026 lies on the supply side, with market dynamics largely anchored to the progress of capacity reduction. The overall price range is expected to be 1,000–1,400 RMB/ton. During periods of low price fluctuations, there may be structural opportunities for phased improvement in supply-demand conditions, driven either by concentrated capacity reductions or policy stimuli.